Tottenham Hotspur Away Match Preview

NORTH LONDON IS RED 

FOR THE FIRST time in several years Champions League places are not at stake in Sunday’s North London Derby but that will not make it any less intense.

With just one point separating the sides ahead of kick off and just four matches remaining it will be winner-takes-all in the race for North London bragging rights.

In-form Arsenal, unbeaten in five matches, currently lead that particular contest but if we are to continue our recent good run and remain on course for a top six finish we will need to end an away jinx at our North London rivals.

We have won just once in our last 11 Premier League away meetings against Tottenham, a 1-0 success in March 2014 thanks to a first minute strike from Tomas Rosicky.

Since then we have drawn two and lost three at White Hart Lane and Wembley, scoring just three times. However, this will be our first visit to the new Tottenham Hotspur Stadium so in many ways it will be a clean slate.

Another statistic that does not make great reading for us is the fact that we have won only two of the last 12 North London derbies going back to January 2014.

But on the plus side is the poor form of Jose Mourinho’s team. Although they are unbeaten in their last two matches, neither performance was particularly inspiring and the only goal they managed was an own goal by Everton’s Michael Keane. 

In fact, the midweek trip to AFC Bournemouth saw them record no shots on target and only a late VAR intervention prevented a Cherries winner.

The 1-0 win over Everton last Monday was only the second for Spurs since the restart, although they have not lost at home in the league since Wolves triumphed 3-2 at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on 1 March.

By contrast Mikel Arteta’s side is unbeaten in five matches and will be looking for a fourth consecutive away win for the first time since 2016.

The controversial midweek draw with Leicester City was hard to take but there was a lot to enjoy about much of the performance.

The form of teenager Bukayo Saka has been a revelation.

His assist for Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang’s opener was his 12^th in all competitions this season, behind only Kevin De Bruyne and Trent Alexander-Arnold, a remarkable return from his first season in senior football.

As a left-footer playing on the right there is always a natural instinct to cut back inside, a frustrating habit of Nicolas Pepe, but Saka instead went on the outside and whipped the ball in with his right foot, showing a maturity to his game that the Ivorian does not possess.

Dani Ceballos has also stepped up in recent games. Arteta praised his midfield partnership with Granit Xhaka following the Leicester match and the two have certainly been complimenting each other well in recent weeks. 

It is a typical right foot/left foot partnership which adds balance to the middle of the park with Ceballos showing his full range of passing against the Foxes. 

Xhaka has been widely criticized this season but we are now seeing exactly how effective he is with the right player alongside him. 

It is no coincidence that since Matteo Guendouzi has been left out of the side, Xhaka's performances have improved. This is mainly down to the fact that he is no longer required to cover for the hotheaded young Frenchman, who has a tendency to chase after the ball thus leaving a massive gap for Xhaka to fill.

The new-look fluid 3-4-3 system, often changing to 3-6-1 or 3-5-2 as the play dictates, has transformed our season following two difficult defeats on the resumption of the season.

The system has looked especially effective away from home where the early press and counterattack has already brought success at Southampton, Sheffield United and Wolverhampton Wanderers, other venues where we have struggled in recent years, so the omens are good.

Trying to second guess Arteta when it comes to team selection has proved difficult in recent games as he has rotated his squad, but I cannot see too many changes for this one. Therefore, my predicted starting XI will be:

Martinez – Mustafi, David Luiz, Kolasinac – Soares, Ceballos, Xhaka, Tierney – Saka, Lacazette, Aubameyang.

I would be tempted to push Kieran Tierney into the back three due his better defensive stability and switch Saka to his favoured position on the left, but that would perhaps be too many unnecessary changes.

This line up will also depend on the fitness of Cedric Soares who missed the Leicester match, although I would certainly have no concerns with Hector Bellerin stepping in again if needed.

Despite Spurs’ poor form and an alarming drop down the table under Mourinho, I expect nothing less than a tense, tight game. 

That said I do expect us to come away with all three points as the empty stadium will almost certainly favour the away team in any local derby without the passionate home support.

I have been a little blasé this week in podcast appearances predicting a 4-1 win, and while that is perhaps a tad over-optimistic I am going to stick with it. 

The key will be scoring first to bring them out and if we do that I see no reason why we cannot go on to complete the humiliation.

Having said that I will happily settle for a scrappy 1-0 success. After all Derby Day is all about the result and we really do need to beat them however it is achieved.