FA Cup Semi Final Preview

PEP TALK

ARSENAL WILL LOOK to build on Wednesday evening’s superb victory over champions Liverpool when they return to Wembley to face holders Manchester City in the semi-final of the FA Cup on Saturday.

The FA Cup now represents a great chance for Mikel Arteta to end his first season at the club with a trophy and with it a pathway back into Europe, but it will not be easy.

Pep Guardiola’s City, still hurting from losing their grip on the Premier League title, have not lost a domestic cup tie since Wigan Athletic knocked them out of the FA Cup in March 2018, since when they have won all 20 ties in both the League Cup and FA Cup.

In fact, that defeat to Wigan is the only domestic cup tie Pep’s side has lost in 28 since Arsenal beat them 2-1 at Wembley in the FA Cup semi-final in April 2017.

On top of that Arsenal will need to overcome a dreadful recent run of results against City. Since that semi-final victory three years ago, Arsenal has lost all seven meetings, conceding 20 goals, and scoring just twice.

But the FA Cup has a history of producing the unexpected and Arsenal tend to do much better when the odds are stacked against them, as they proved once again against Liverpool.

That midweek victory and the manner it was achieved, with a magnificent rear-guard action the like of which had not been seen since the days of George Graham in the 1990’s, will give Arteta’s men confidence that they can overcome City.

Do not underestimate the inside knowledge that Arteta has following four years working with Pep at City from 2016. Of course, that did not help in the first match after the restart as early injuries threw his well-made plans out of the window resulting in a 3-0 defeat, but I expect to see a vastly different Arsenal side this time.

The new three at the back system has worked well in recent matches, with only one defeat in the last seven and just five goals conceded.

This new-found defensive solidity has been due in no small part to the protection offered by the midfield. The partnership between Granit Xhaka and Dani Ceballos has been magnificent, although do not be surprised to see the more defensively aware Lucas Torriera, who played against Liverpool, keep his place.

In fact, Arteta may pack the midfield to counter City’s strength so perhaps he will withdraw one of the front three to accommodate the little Uruguayan.

Favourite to be left out would be Nicolas Pepe who has flattered to deceive in the last few matches. After a bright start he has faded badly in recent weeks and as he offers very little defensively it would certainly make sense for him to make way.

I can therefore see a slight alteration to the formation with more of a 3-5-2 system being employed as opposed to the 3-4-3 of recent games. So here is my predicted starting line-up:

Martinez – Holding, David Luiz, Tierney – Bellerin, Ceballos, Torriera, Xhaka, Saka – Aubameyang, Lacazette

I would stick with the same back three that was so impressive in midweek. 

Kieran Tierney was superb as the left centre back and I was particularly impressed with the performance of Rob Holding. Both offer much more than Shkodran Mustafi and Sead Kolasinac so I would be shocked if either of those two starts after the Spurs debacle last week.

Expect to see Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang dropping deep on the left at times to help prevent City exploiting the spaces in wide areas, while Buyako Saka and Hector Bellerin will need to push on when we are in possession to support Alexandre Lacazette, who will drop into false nine role to link the play. Runners off him will therefore be crucial.

Although I believe City are a better attacking team than Liverpool, they are far more vulnerable at the back which explains why they have finished so far behind them this season. I can see have having plenty of chances and if we can be far more clinical than in recent weeks, the Liverpool match excepted of course, then we will have a great chance of scoring the goals we will need.

The big concern is whether we can keep their attack at bay. Even without our nemesis, Sergio Aguero, they have still been scoring at an incredible rate and we will need to defend at least as well as we did against Liverpool if we are to have any chance.

I genuinely believe that City will be worried about playing us. Pep demonstrated this by resting several key players for the midweek win over Bournemouth and he may well spring a surprise or two on Saturday as he looks to outwit his former right-hand man.

We need to start well as once City settle, they will dominate possession. If we concede first it will be extremely difficult to come back so we must be focused from the start.

This really is a tough one to predict. My heart says we can win and go on to lift the cup, but my head says City will be too strong. The Liverpool performance has given me renewed optimism however, so I am going to stick my neck on the line and go for a 2-1 win, possibly after extra time.

Let us be honest though, I would not be surprised if we lose 3-0 again. Yes, it really will depend on which Arsenal turns up.

DID YOU KNOW

Between October 1975 - November 2011 City visited Arsenal 27 times in all competitions without winning. They failed to score in 19 of them.

Between August 1994 - October 2005 Arsenal beat City 12 times in a row.